Grain/Livestock Overview

(ZSX24) (ZCZ24) (ZWZ24) (ZLZ24) (ZMZ24) (LEV24) (GFX24) (HEV24) 

The charts below is key to this analysis.

There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.

The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.

The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.

There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

This is the short version.

A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.

A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.

A 61.8% level can cause wide swings and keep the market in a trading range.

A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.

We have done 42 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.

This is our latest video with analysis on Soybean Oil and the S&P 500 Futures.

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OVERVIEW

Soybeans
November
From last week,

The small range for the week can be considered a positive thing since the setback from the 1032.75 major Gann square has not sent it down to the 78.6% level at 972.00 yet. The previous week had one close below 38.2% back to the low at 1002.00 and all of this week closed above it, another positive sign and this level will be key to the next week. We usually don't like to use the 38.2% retracement so early in a new leg, but holding as we said would be a good sign.
 

Use 1002.00 as the swing point for the week.

The low since this update was 1001.25 and a 50 cent rally followed hitting the tightest resistance at 1055.00. In January it hit the short term target of 38.2% at 1076.00. These levels will be key for the next week.

Soybean Oil
December
From last week,

Monday's low hit 78.6% at 38.70 and there has been a $2.00 rally so far, what makes this more important is that holding a 78.6% level can be the start of a new bull move based on the ONE44 78.6% rule.

Use 38.70 as the swing point for the week again.

It held 38.70 perfectly and it has now rallied over $5.00. The latest video we did on 9/13/24 pointed out that 78.6% is where a lot of Bull runs start and end. You can find the video here.

Corn
December

With the new highs this week we will now watch 38.2% of the rally to see if it can get some upside traction, just as it did in the Soybeans and Wheat.

Wheat
December
From last week,

After the big spike above 578.00 there was no follow through and it got right back below it keeping the trend very negative. The setback from here can send it to new lows, or at least 78.6% back to the low, however we will watch the 38.2% level at 569.00 for an early trend change signal, as we said in the Soybeans, we usually don't watch the 38.2% level so early in a move, but holding this would be a positive sign.

Use 569.00 as the swing point for the week.

This week held 38.2% (569.00) of the current rally, this was also a major Gann square.

Cattle
December
From the Special Update on 9/24/24

The low on 8/21/24 and again on 9/9/24 held 61.8% on the continuation chart and that gave us a target of 61.8% the other way at 184.60 based on the ONE44 61.8% rule. It fell a few ticks short but, it is close enough to use the 61.8% rule again to get the downside target.

Use 184.60 as the swing point for the week.
 

Hogs
December
From last week,

There is a combination of retracements at 72.85, it is 61.8% back to the contract high and 38.2% back on the continuation chart.

Use 72.85 as the swing point for the week.
 

Above it, the short term target area is 78.6% back to the contract high at 75.80 and the 76.67 major Gann square.
This week's high is 75.80.

Feeder Cattle
November

The last two closes were at 238.00 (23.6%) and currently it is trading above it. This level will be key for the next week again.
 

Use 238.00 as the swing point for the week.
 

Above it, the short term target is 38.2% of the same move at 244.70, this is the level it needs to take out to turn the trend positive again.

We are right at 38.2% (244.70) this will be key for the next week.

……..

This week's analysis for Soybeans

November
From last week,

The small range for the week can be considered a positive thing since the setback from the 1032.75 major Gann square has not sent it down to the 78.6% level at 972.00 yet. The previous week had one close below 38.2% back to the low at 1002.00 and all of this week closed above it, another positive sign and this level will be key to the next week. We usually don't like to use the 38.2% retracement so early in a new leg, but holding as we said would be a good sign.

Use 1002.00 as the swing point for the week.
 

Above it,  the short term target is 38.2% back to the contract high at 1116.00. The long term target is 61.8% at 1217.00. Any rally that can't get above 23.6% of the same move at 1055.00 is a very negative sign and new lows can quickly follow.

The low since this update is 1001.25, holding 38.2% at 1002.00 was a very good sign and a 50 cent rally followed hitting the tightest resistance at 1055.00, this 23.6% back to the contract high. It is currently trading above it, getting right back below it can send it back to a new low, or a good test of it. We will watch 38.2% on any setback to see if the market truly has a trend.

Use 1055.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the short term target is 1116.00, this is 38.2% back to the contract high and the long term swing point, taking it out turns the trend positive. The long term target is ….

Below it, getting a close back below 1055.00 can send this market back to a new low. The short term target area is the 984.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the low at 981.00, this also brings it back into the long term 78.6% level at 978.00. 

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.

You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

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